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OpenAI quietly shaved $20B off its revenue figure and the Nasdaq dropped 1.25%. Here's why one private company's accounting fumble is everyone's problem.
S&P 500 near record highs, VIX below 16, everything looks fine. Except the average stock is 17% off its highs. Fine.
The S&P 500 just hit 7,819 and the Nasdaq is at record highs. Meanwhile, 10-year yields are at 5.31% and a war is happening. Normal stuff.
Nasdaq up 1.05%, S&P 500 at record highs, VIX at 15. Sounds great. Now look at what's actually driving it.
Nasdaq up 1.19%, VIX at 16, and a literal war in the Middle East. Either the market knows something, or it has completely lost the plot.
The S&P 500 lost ground three days in a row, then posted its best day of the week on Friday. The market is doing that thing again where it ignores everything scary.
September nonfarm payrolls came in at just 29,000 vs. 90,000 expected. Add 5.29% yields and an Iran war, and the macro picture gets messy fast.
The S&P 500 just dropped four sessions in a row. Oil is flirting with triple digits. The 10-year yield hit 5.26%. Q4 opened with a punch to the gut.
The 10-year yield is at 5.24% and rising. The VIX just jumped 8%. Over 40% of S&P 500 stocks are already in bear market territory. Welcome to the party.
10-year yields at 5.17%, oil sticky near $92, and the VIX still below 15. The market isn't panicking. It's quietly rotating.
Everyone's freaking out about 5.25% yields. REITs are up 13% YTD and paying nearly 6% cash yields. Someone forgot to tell them to panic.
The VIX is calm. The 10-year is not. With Hormuz in limbo and yields at two-decade highs, the market's chill face is doing a lot of heavy lifting.