War, SCOTUS, and a Record Dow: The Most Eventful Quarter Nobody Saw Coming

Let's just say it plainly: the S&P 500 finished Q2 up 14%, the Nasdaq surged over 19%, and the Dow hit a record closing high — all while the US was conducting ground operations in Iran, a US fighter jet got shot down, and the Strait of Hormuz was blockaded. If you told anyone this at the start of April, they would have called an ambulance for you.

The macro picture is basically three stories duct-taped together. First, geopolitics: a fragile US-Iran truce is holding (for now), oil risk premiums are bleeding out, and $OIL is actually falling despite an active military conflict — because diplomacy in Doha apparently hits harder than cruise missiles. Second, SCOTUS: the court preserved Fed independence in a 5-4 nail-biter, with Roberts and Kavanaugh breaking ranks to protect Lisa Cook's seat, while simultaneously handing Trump a sweeping 6-3 win to fire independent agency heads — a ruling Trump called one of the biggest presidential power grabs in 91 years. Third, Big Tech: $GOOGL popped nearly 5% on its Dow debut while cybersecurity names ripped higher on the back of ongoing Iran-related threat escalation.

The sentiment read from YouTube and Reddit is clear: retail is cautiously bullish, perma-bears like Grantham are getting ratio'd in comment sections, and everyone's watching Doha like it's the Super Bowl. History says enjoy the rally — but maybe keep one eye on the Strait of Hormuz.