Week 14 of the Iran War Just Broke Oil Markets — and $CF Is Eating It Up
Oil above $100, stocks getting slammed, and the fertilizer trade of the decade hiding in plain sight
Two weeks ago we flagged energy infrastructure exposure as the trade to watch. This week, Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel for back-to-back sessions — a three-year high — as the Strait of Hormuz hit a near-standstill and Trump rejected ceasefire talks. Stocks got slammed. Gas stations, now running on 12-24 hour price-update tech, are already passing the pain to your wallet. National average gas prices are eyeing $4/gallon, with some states flirting with $5.
The surprise winner of the week? $CF Industries, up 12% to a record high. Turns out blockading the world's fertilizer shipping routes right before spring planting season is extremely good for the one fertilizer company your neighbor definitely doesn't own. $CNC (Centene) fell 21% — a completely different vibe — as healthcare got caught in the broader risk-off carnage. Bloomberg's weekly roundup noted the ag supply chain risk is just getting started.
Meanwhile, YouTube's doom circuit is in full bloom: Jeremiah Babe's latest video has Martin Armstrong calling for gold at $8,800 and oil testing $200 — which, honestly, feels less insane than it did two weeks ago. When the permabears start sounding like the consensus, you know the vibe has shifted.