The Strait Is Open, the S&P Is Ripping, and Nobody Knows If Any of This Is Real
The S&P 500 just had its biggest weekly gain since 2020, oil cratered, and the global 'safety net' is more duct tape than kevlar
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST | hold | $710.14 | — | — | — |
| RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD | buy | $285.87 | — | — | — |
| CCL CARNIVAL CORP | buy | $29.33 | — | — | — |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | hold | $102.58 | — | — | — |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | hold | $401.09 | — | — | — |
| INTC INTEL CORP | hold | $68.25 | — | — | — |
| SCHW SCHWAB CHARLES CORP | buy | $92.26 | — | — | — |
| BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF | buy | $75656.00 | — | — | — |
| ETH Grayscale Ethereum Staking Mini ETF | hold | $2347.53 | — | — | — |
| MSTR Strategy Inc | buy | $166.24 | — | — | — |
Let's be clear about what happened this week: the S&P 500 surged over 3% — its biggest weekly advance since 2020 — Nasdaq logged its longest positive streak since 1992, and the Dow ripped 869 points in a single session. All because Trump said Iran agreed to suspend its nuclear program. Except Bloomberg's own national security team says there's no formal written agreement. So yes, markets are absolutely vibing on vibes.
Oil dropped as much as 10% to $88/barrel on Strait of Hormuz reopening news, which sent cruise lines and airlines ($RCL, $CCL, $UAL) up 7%+ on pure fuel-cost relief. Meanwhile gold rose $81 and silver jumped $4 — the smart money hedging the euphoria in real time. The IEA warns full energy recovery could take two years even if the strait stays open, and one oil analyst sees December crude futures hitting $72 with a long-term target of $50. Airlines celebrating today may be flying into a headwind tomorrow.
The macro backdrop is genuinely scary: the IMF and World Bank are navigating a stagflationary trap with governments already maxed out on pandemic debt, central banks stuck between cutting for growth and hiking for inflation, and the global safety net described as significantly weakened versus prior crises. Schwab is launching spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading for retail. Anthropic's new 'Mythos' AI model triggered an emergency White House meeting. The S&P is at record highs. Everything is fine. Everything is completely fine.