Bitcoin's Bull Run Just Getting Started, Says Tom Lee

If you've been waiting for a permission slip to get bullish on $BTC, Fundstrat's Tom Lee just handed you one. In a recent YouTube breakdown, Lee made the case that the midterm election outcome, a divided government with Democrats sweeping Congress, is actually good for crypto. His logic: when Washington has to negotiate instead of legislate, sweeping regulatory crackdowns become a lot harder to push through. The Fed also gets more room to operate independently, which historically has been a friend to risk assets. Including the digital kind.

The macro backdrop is cooperating, at least partially. The VIX dropped 1.51% to 20.83 after peaking above 21 earlier in the week, signaling that the initial panic from the election results is fading. The 10-year Treasury yield ticked back up to 4.95%, which is the kind of number that usually spooks crypto, but sentiment on X tells a different story this week. Crypto Twitter is reading the political shift as a net positive, and the engagement data backs that up with unusual buzz around Bitcoin's medium-term setup.

Then there's the elephant in the room wearing a Pyongyang uniform. The FBI confirmed North Korea stole $6 billion from Binance, a headline that would have torched crypto sentiment in 2022. In 2026? It barely moved the needle. That's either a sign of market maturity or collective denial, and honestly it might be both. What it does show is that $BTC and $ETH have built enough structural demand that single-event shock absorption is now part of the feature set.

The bear case isn't invisible. Yields near 5% are still a real competitor to speculative assets. The Strait of Hormuz situation, with tankers literally on fire and US-Iran ceasefire talks ongoing, is the kind of geopolitical wildcard that can flip risk appetite in an afternoon. And a divided government cutting regulatory heat from crypto is a thesis, not a guarantee.

But the social sentiment right now reads bullish, the VIX is coming off its highs, and Tom Lee has been right about enough crypto calls that dismissing him takes real courage. Or a very short memory.

The bull run waiting room just got a lot more crowded.