Nvidia $NVDA Earnings: Two Stocks Drive 32% of S&P 500 Growth

Let's be clear about the stakes here. $NVDA reports earnings Wednesday, and Liz Ann Sonders over at Schwab dropped a number that should make every passive investor sit up straight: Nvidia alone accounts for 18% of expected S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026. Throw in Micron at another 14%, and two semiconductor names are responsible for roughly a third of the entire index's expected earnings expansion. That is not diversification. That is a prayer circle.

Jim Cramer called Nvidia the most important stock in the world on Monday's Mad Money, comparing it to the steam engine of the AI revolution. Dramatic? Sure. Wrong? Not really. The YouTube finance universe is fully in Cramer's corner on this one, with Bloomberg's closing bell coverage noting the stock rose 2.2% on Tuesday alone as investors positioned ahead of the print. The bear cases are real though: circular investment deals, HBM shortages, China export restrictions, and data center regulation concerns are all floating around X like bad weather. Bulls say the revenue trajectory makes the bears look like people who shorted the internet in 1997.

Meanwhile, the most underreported story of the week is sitting quietly in Seeking Alpha's feed. $MRVL (Marvell Technology) just secured a custom chip agreement with Google valued at $120 billion through 2033. Susquehanna responded by hiking its price target to $265. Marvell also reaffirmed its fiscal 2029 custom revenue target of $10 billion, and reports its own Q2 results after market close Wednesday, same day as Nvidia. If you thought this was a one-horse AI chip race, Marvell just entered the paddock with a very large Google-shaped jockey.

The catch on Marvell: Seeking Alpha's Quant model sits at hold, flagging supply constraints on advanced process nodes as a near-term growth speed bump. Fair point. A $120 billion backlog does not mean a $120 billion quarter, and node availability is a genuine bottleneck across the entire AI supply chain right now.

• $NVDA bull case: 18% of S&P 500 earnings growth, AI infrastructure spending showing no signs of slowing
• $NVDA bear case: China restrictions, HBM shortages, circular capex concerns
• $MRVL bull case: $120B Google deal, $10B custom revenue target by FY2029
• $MRVL bear case: Advanced node supply constraints, Quant hold rating, earnings uncertainty

Wednesday is essentially the AI sector's report card, and the whole class gets graded on Nvidia's curve.