Nvidia Leads Nasdaq to All-Time Highs as Semis Ignore the War

While geopolitical Twitter is refreshing Reuters headlines about the USS George Washington and Hormuz blockades, the market made a very different statement on Friday: $NVDA led the Nasdaq to a +1.19% close, its best day in the five-session stretch, and TheChartGuys flagged it directly, noting that all-time highs were driven almost entirely by Nvidia and semiconductors. The rest of the market? Quietly crumbling.

That last part is the detail people are glossing over. TheChartGuys pointed out that the S&P 500 equal-weight index has been in a six-week staircase decline, a pattern not seen in at least six years. So when your feed is celebrating new Nasdaq records, just know it's basically a $NVDA victory lap with everyone else riding in the trunk. Brian Shannon's Saturday breakdown confirmed the same vibe: the S&P broke its short-term pattern of lower highs and lower lows, but Shannon expects a lower high before any sustained rally, meaning the bounce might have more bark than bite.

The other name getting serious chart attention is $MU. Shannon called Micron's pullback to its 20-day moving average and earnings anchor VWAP a textbook setup, describing it as a potential buy on a shakeout and higher low. That's the kind of clean technical story that YouTube finance eats for breakfast. X sentiment around Micron has been quieter, but the chart community is clearly circling it as the next semiconductor trade after Nvidia's run.

Here's the macro backdrop that makes the semiconductor enthusiasm interesting rather than reckless. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.24%, down modestly on the week but still uncomfortably high. TheChartGuys noted that rising yields have been hitting dividend stocks and metals hard while funneling capital toward T-bills. Tech and semis are the one corner of the market with earnings growth strong enough to justify ignoring the yield pressure, which is partly why the rotation keeps happening in their favor.

The VIX at 16.39 is almost insultingly calm given that there is a literal naval blockade in the Persian Gulf. Treasury Secretary Bessent reportedly noted Iran would have no oil on the water this week for the first time in history, OPEC+ delayed its capacity review entirely, and markets basically shrugged and bought more chips. Either the market knows something diplomats don't, or it's just really, really into semiconductors right now.

Micron at support with semis leading and the Nasdaq printing records is either the cleanest setup of Q4 or the most crowded trade in a market that's starting to look a little top-heavy everywhere else. Pick your adventure.