GLD and XLE Are the Only Adults in the Room Right Now
With the Strait of Hormuz locked tight and VIX screaming near 30, the social hive mind has one trade consensus: energy and gold aren't optional anymore
Let's set the scene: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed — insurance carriers won't touch it — 3,200 ships are idled, Saudi pipelines are blown, and ~20% of global oil supply is just... not moving. Oil futures crossed $111/barrel per The Traveling Trader, while Bloomberg's Middle East coverage puts crude up ~36% in a single week. TheChartGuys note that XLE-adjacent energy plays are the rare bright spot while SPY, QQQ, and especially IWM are cracking at key technical levels — small caps getting absolutely cooked by surging energy costs and fading rate-cut hopes.
Meanwhile, the gold trade is getting loud across every platform. TheChartGuys call GLD "constructive" with a failed seller breakdown reading as outright bullish. On the AI side, Bloomberg's Henry Blodget is throwing cold water on software selloff panic — he's calling it 1999 energy, not 2001 collapse, which is either reassuring or the most dangerous sentence in finance depending on your MSFT position.
The funniest/scariest part? Trump told reporters oil prices will "come down quickly" while simultaneously confirming the Strait is closed. Bold strategy, Cotton — let's see if it works out.