War, $5 Diesel, and a Strait Nobody Can Open: Markets Are Screaming Risk-Off
With WTI near $99 and the S&P logging its fourth straight weekly loss, the Iran war isn't a tail risk anymore — it's the whole trade
Ticker Ratings
Twenty-one days in and the US-Iran war is no longer a geopolitical asterisk — it's the entire market. Brent crude crossed $112/barrel, WTI is knocking on $99, diesel just cracked $5/gallon for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine, and Iran's new leadership has made one thing crystal clear: the Strait of Hormuz stays closed while bombs are falling. The S&P 500 is now down four consecutive weeks, the Nasdaq shed ~2% on triple-witching Friday alone, and the VIX pushed above 27. Classic risk-off — except nothing about this feels classic.
The macro crosscurrents are genuinely brutal. The Fed is frozen — Fed's Waller says no rate hikes, but traders are now pricing hike odds back in as energy shock threatens to flip inflation expectations. The yield curve flattened to a 42bp 2s/10s spread. Qatar just reported nearly 20% of its LNG capacity knocked out for up to five years. The Indian Rupee blew through 93 per dollar. Meanwhile Bloomberg's David Woo, reportedly sheltering from missile attacks in Jerusalem, is telling clients to sell stocks and buy oil — calling this the first US-China proxy war. Not exactly the vibe you want heading into the weekend.
The one lonely bull? Tom Lee at Fundstrat, who's holding his 7,700 S&P year-end target and pointing to historical data showing markets bottom early in conflicts. Respect the conviction, Tom. Truly. But with the USS Boxer not reaching the Persian Gulf until mid-April and Iran refusing to even discuss Hormuz, the market may have a few more bad hair days before that thesis plays out.