The Strait Is Open, Oil Is Cratering, and Your Portfolio Just Got a Two-Week Reprieve
Every finance creator on YouTube has an opinion on the ceasefire rally — here's who's right, who's wrong, and what to actually do with your money
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML ASML HOLDING NV | hold | $1417.80 | — | — | — |
| DAL DELTA AIR LINES, INC. | buy | $68.90 | — | — | — |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | buy | $97.09 | — | — | — |
| LEVI LEVI STRAUSS & CO | buy | $21.70 | — | — | — |
| AMZN AMAZON COM INC | buy | $221.18 | — | — | — |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | buy | $614.38 | — | — | — |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | buy | $317.62 | — | — | — |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | hold | $373.18 | — | — | — |
| NVDA NVIDIA CORP | buy | $181.63 | — | — | — |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | buy | $351.08 | — | — | — |
| PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc | buy | $173.75 | — | — | — |
| CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | buy | $425.45 | — | — | — |
| XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP | hold | $153.89 | — | — | — |
| QCOM QUALCOMM INC/DE | sell | $126.38 | — | — | — |
| ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC /UK | buy | $149.24 | — | — | — |
| BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF | hold | $71119.00 | — | — | — |
Two weeks. That's all the market needed to hear. A US-Iran ceasefire — brokered with Pakistan playing diplomatic middle child — sent Nasdaq futures up 3.5%, WTI crude crashing 15.5% to ~$95/barrel, and airline stocks like $DAL and $UAL surging 9-13% in pre-market. Joseph Carlson called March 30th the exact bottom of the S&P 500/QQQ — and if he's right, the people who bought the geopolitical fear dip are currently insufferable at dinner parties.
But not everyone's popping champagne. CNBC's Brigadier General Kimmitt argues Iran played the US like a fiddle — shifting negotiations from nukes and proxies to Strait of Hormuz tolls, which is a much more defensible position for Tehran. Evercore's Roger Altman is blunter: peace deals this complex take one to two years, not two weeks. Meanwhile, $ASML ripped nearly 7% on the news, despite Seeking Alpha's quant model slapping it with an F on valuation — forward EV/EBITDA of 29.98x versus the sector's 12.74x. Wall Street's 44 analysts disagree and rate it a Strong Buy. Somebody's wrong, and it's not going to be boring finding out who.
Hyundai dropped a $26 billion US investment bomb, SpaceX quietly filed for an IPO targeting a $2 trillion valuation, and Anthropic's new Claude model is apparently autonomously finding thousands of cybersecurity vulnerabilities — which is either very cool or the setup to a movie we don't want to be in. The ceasefire is fragile, the Hormuz backlog has 800 tankers stuck like a floating traffic jam, and the S&P is still a few percent below its all-time high of ~7,000. Relief rally or the real thing? Ask again in two weeks — literally.