The June Swoon Is Real: Semis Crater 9.5%, SpaceX IPO Looms, and the Fed Might Actually Hike

Let's set the scene: 172,000 nonfarm payrolls hit on Friday — double the 85,000 expected — and markets immediately decided good news is bad news again. The Nasdaq 100 dropped ~4.8%, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index cratered 9.5%, and $AVGO fell another ~6% after its AI chip guidance already disappointed earlier in the week. $NVDA shed 4.9%, $AMD dropped 8.8%, and $MU got absolutely cooked at -9%. Ed Yardeni, to his credit, called a 'June Swoon' days before it happened and is now nodding smugly from his office.

Meanwhile, the SpaceX IPO circus is in full swing — priced at $135/share targeting a $1.77 trillion valuation, already oversubscribed, and Andrei Jikh's YouTube channel is sounding the alarm that Nasdaq's new 'fast entry rule' (15 trading days vs. the old 3 months) essentially turns your passive 401K into an exit ramp for early SpaceX investors. $META didn't help sentiment either, reportedly eyeing a massive stock offering to fund AI capex — which Tom Lee on CNBC somehow spun as bullish, bless his heart. $BTC slid below $60,000, with Bloomberg's Mike McGlone dusting off his $10,000 price target like it's a vintage wine.

The one pocket of genuine strength? Airlines. United, Delta, and Air France execs are in Rio essentially high-fiving each other over record summer demand even as fuel hits $90-$96/barrel — turns out consumers will pay a 20% fare increase before they'll cancel a vacation. The Strait of Hormuz situation remains the market's most dangerous wildcard, and with Brent crude at $93 and OPEC output at a 37-year low, 'artificially suppressed' oil prices might be the most interesting conspiracy theory that's actually kind of true right now.