SpaceX Up 37% on Debut, $SPCE Who? The Real Space Trade Is Unlisted and Reddit Is Losing Its Mind

Let's start with the elephant in the room: SpaceX just completed the largest IPO on record, ending its first trading week up 37% from its offer price despite a 3.6% Friday dip. YouTube finance channels are openly salivating — Bloomberg Businessweek dedicated an entire segment to it, calling it the opening act for mega AI IPOs like Anthropic and OpenAI. Reddit is collectively devastated it can't buy shares at the grocery store yet. X is doing what X does: half the posts are moon emojis, the other half are Seth Klarman quotes about euphoria.

Speaking of euphoria — $INTC ripped over 10% on Trump-backed Apple partnership news for domestic chip production, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.4% to a record high. Goldman Sachs dropped a semiconductor supercycle report mid-week, and Japanese chip equipment executives confirmed demand is so strong they're revising EPS estimates daily. Meanwhile, $ASML is getting absolutely dragged on geopolitical Twitter after reports that one of its EUV machines may have quietly found its way to China — the company is denying it, but Commerce Secretary Lutnik is publicly concerned, and that's not a great Friday vibe.

The macro backdrop is doing its best impression of a disaster movie with a surprise twist ending: the US-Iran Hormuz deal is real (ish), crude is off its highs, and mortgage rates just hit a one-month low at 6.47% — which means the Fed hawks are having a bad weekend. If the 60-day negotiation window holds, energy inflation fades, and Goldman's supercycle call lands, the semis trade isn't done. Klarman can be right about euphoria and still be early — ask anyone who shorted Nvidia in 2023.