SpaceX Stock Is Down 50% From Its High: Buy the Dip or Dead Cat?

$SPCE wishes it had these problems. The real SpaceX, the one Elon Musk actually runs, just faced its first earnings call as a public company, and the market's verdict so far is brutal: shares are sitting roughly 30% below the $150 IPO debut price and approximately 50% off the all-time high, according to Bloomberg Podcasts coverage this week. That is not a dip. That is a crater.

To be fair, SpaceX raised $85 billion through its IPO, so the lights are staying on. But Bloomberg's analysts flagged the core tension clearly: rocketry is capital-intensive by design, AI infrastructure in orbit is even more so, and the path to profitability involves building things that occasionally explode. Investors are watching three specific milestones, v3 satellite rollout, Starship development, and the AI data center in space ambition, and right now all three are still more PowerPoint than payload.

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal report about potentially splitting off Tesla's Charging division added noise to Musk's already crowded agenda. When your CEO is managing a car company, a rocket company, a social media platform, and a government efficiency department simultaneously, "focused execution" is doing a lot of heavy lifting as a thesis.

The bull case is straightforward: SpaceX is the only vertically integrated rocket company with a functioning constellation business, real hyperscaler contracts, and a founder who has already pulled off two improbable hardware companies. The $85 billion war chest gives it a long runway, literally and figuratively.

The bear case is equally clear: the stock priced in perfection at $150, the capital needs are enormous and recurring, and Musk's attention is not a fixed resource. YouTube's finance community is split, with Bloomberg's panel leaning cautiously constructive on the long thesis while acknowledging the near-term pain is real and probably not over.

Buying a 50%-off rocket company sounds fun until you remember the rocket company was the one that set the price.