Oil Whipsaws, Hormuz Threatens to Close, and the Oracle of Omaha Just Rode Into the Sunset — Welcome to Monday

Let's start with the obvious: oil markets are having an absolute identity crisis. Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows — if Trump follows through on threats to Iranian energy infrastructure. Saudi Aramco's CEO just pulled out of a major energy conference because of the conflict. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent is telling anyone who'll listen that the US has 'plenty' of funds for a war. Markets are bracing, the dollar is rising on haven demand, and Asia shares are already sliding.

Then there's Omaha, where the $BRK.B annual meeting delivered something genuinely historic: Warren Buffett's jersey — number 60, for 60 years as CEO — was raised to the rafters next to Charlie Munger's number 45. Q1 operating earnings jumped 18% to $11.35 billion, the cash hoard hit a record ~$397 billion, and new CEO Greg Abel got a ringing endorsement from literally everyone including Bill Murray, who apparently went all-in decades ago and has zero regrets. Berkshire also quietly resumed buybacks for the first time since Q2 2024.

Two eras ending simultaneously: Buffett's 60-year run and the post-WWII Mideast energy order. History has terrible timing.