Oil Hits $82 as Iran Blocks Hormuz: Who Wins, Who Bleeds

The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Not metaphorically. Not as a threat. Actually closed, per Iran's IRGC navy, after a week of US airstrikes on Iranian missile systems, Iranian counterstrikes on US Gulf bases, and at least one dead sailor after Iranian missiles hit oil tankers in the strait. WTI crude is pushing toward the $78-$82 conflict-era high, and the energy trade is very much on.

According to Jim Cramer on CNBC, today's real winners were the boring ones: $VLO, $MOS, and $DOW all popped on Iran-related oil concerns, while the Dow shed 138 points and the Nasdaq tumbled 1.55%. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Daybreak crew flagged that Fed Governor Waller is waving around rate hike threats if oil-driven inflation gets sticky, with money markets now pricing a 44-50% chance of a July hike. Fun times.

The broad six-month rally is holding, per Investor's Business Daily, small caps are outperforming large caps across all 11 GICS sectors for the first time in 30 years, but a closed strait plus a hawkish Fed is the kind of combo that turns a dip into a crater if you blink too long.