JPMorgan Earnings Preview: What Retail Traders Are Betting On

It is earnings season again, and the opening act belongs to the big banks. JPMorgan ($JPM), Goldman Sachs ($GS), and Wells Fargo ($WFC) are all reporting this week, and the macro backdrop they are walking into is one of the stranger setups in recent memory. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 5.24%, net interest income should be printing like a cash register on Black Friday, yet retail traders are not exactly popping champagne.

Here is the tension: higher yields are theoretically a gift for bank earnings, widening the spread between what banks pay depositors and what they charge borrowers. But a Bloomberg Podcasts segment flagged that Goldman Sachs allegedly warned the long end of Treasuries is effectively "bidless," with no meaningful buyers for 10-to-30-year debt. If that is even half true, the bond portfolios these banks are sitting on are looking a little uncomfortable. A 29,000 payroll print for September, well below expectations, also signals the consumer is starting to wheeze, which is not great for loan growth or credit quality.

Then there is the geopolitical wildcard. The US-Iran conflict has the Strait of Hormuz under pressure, OPEC+ has delayed its capacity review, and energy sector volatility is feeding into broader uncertainty. Banks with significant energy sector loan exposure or commodity trading desks could swing either way depending on how the next two weeks of headlines land. The VIX at 16.39 says the market is not panicking yet, but it has crept up from 14.21 just two weeks ago, which is worth noting.

On the bull side, the Nasdaq is up 1.19% on the week and the S&P closed at 7,722, so risk appetite is clearly not dead. Retail traders on YouTube and X are broadly cautious on banks but still leaning into the yield story. The bull case is simple: fat net interest margins plus trading revenue from a volatile macro environment equals a solid quarter. The bear case is equally simple: credit losses are starting to tick up, the jobs market is softening, and nobody actually wants to own 30-year bonds right now.

One YouTube analyst from Brian Shannon's channel noted the S&P broke a short-term pattern of lower highs and lower lows, with buyers defending key moving averages. That kind of technical recovery heading into earnings week usually means the bar for disappointment is lower than the headlines suggest. Banks do not need a blowout quarter to move higher. They just need to not scare anyone.

If Goldman's trading desk had a strong quarter riding the Iran-driven commodity volatility, that number alone could flip the narrative. The crowd is watching. So is everyone who has been quietly shorting bank stocks into this report.