Hormuz or Bust: Oil Hits $141 and the Market Is Basically a Dumpster Fire

Buckle up, because the market's having a full-scale geopolitical meltdown. Brent crude hit $141/barrel — its highest since 2008 — after Iran's Revolutionary Guards threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz if Trump follows through on energy facility threats. Saudi Aramco's CEO just pulled out of a major international energy conference. That's not a resignation letter, that's a flare gun fired into a gasoline factory.

Meanwhile, the macro picture is genuinely schizophrenic. The March jobs report came in at 178,000 — crushing the 65,000 estimate — but YouTube's finance corners are screaming that the numbers are fabricated, citing mass layoffs and Amazon's new 3.5% fuel surcharge for sellers (already passing the oil pain downstream). Wage growth clocked in at just 3.5% YoY, the lightest since May 2021, which would normally be a Fed dream but feels pretty irrelevant when missiles are landing in Israeli desert towns.

The dollar is catching a haven bid, Asia shares are sliding, and UK PM Starmer called an emergency economic meeting on Sunday — which is the geopolitical equivalent of your pilot asking everyone to remain calm while clearly not remaining calm themselves.