Hormuz or Bust: Iran Threatens to Shut the World's Most Important Oil Chokepoint — and Markets Are Freaking Out
With tankers in crosshairs and diplomacy on life support, energy markets are pricing in a very bad Monday morning
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO United States Oil Fund, LP | buy | $133.59 | — | — | — |
| XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP | buy | $144.26 | — | — | — |
| CVX CHEVRON CORP | buy | $181.45 | — | — | — |
| UUP Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund | buy | $27.34 | — | — | — |
| LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP | buy | $507.21 | — | — | — |
| RTX RTX Corp | buy | $176.00 | — | — | — |
| SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST | sell | $737.62 | — | — | — |
| DAL DELTA AIR LINES, INC. | sell | $73.26 | — | — | — |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | sell | $13.31 | — | — | — |
Let's not bury the lede: Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz if Trump follows through on threats to Iranian energy infrastructure. About 20% of global oil supply flows through that narrow strip of water. Bloomberg's Balance of Power podcast notes Brent is already hovering around $100/barrel, and JP Morgan is warning US gas prices could hit $5/gallon as refiners pivot to jet fuel. Cool, cool, cool.
Social sentiment is a five-alarm dumpster fire. Reddit's investing communities are panic-buying energy tickers while simultaneously doom-scrolling Reuters headlines about Iranian missiles hitting Israeli desert towns and UK Prime Minister Starmer calling emergency economic meetings. The dollar is catching a haven bid, Asia shares are sliding, and the Saudi Aramco CEO literally ghosted a major international energy conference. When the guy who runs the world's largest oil company won't show up to talk about oil, that's your sign.
The one tragicomic bright spot: Treasury Secretary Bessent assures us the US has 'plenty' of funds for an Iran war. Somewhere, a bond trader just stress-ate an entire bag of pretzels.