Hormuz Is Open, Oil Crashed 11%, and Wall Street Just Had Its Best Week in Months — Now What?
The Iran-Israel war appears to be winding down, oil cratered, travel stocks soared, and Reddit is already arguing about whether this rally is real
Ticker Ratings
The Strait of Hormuz is open. Oil fell 11% to $88/barrel. The Dow ripped 869 points. The S&P 500 closed up 85 points with the Nasdaq adding 366. In short: the market went absolutely feral on Friday, and social sentiment is reflecting exactly that — a mix of pure euphoria and very healthy skepticism.
Travel and energy names were the obvious winners. $RCL, $CCL, and $UAL all surged 7%+ as fuel cost fears evaporated overnight. Morgan Stanley's Simonetti called the prior selloff an "incredible buying opportunity" — which, in hindsight, is the kind of thing that sounds obvious after a 4% weekly rip. Meanwhile, $NFLX was the wet blanket at the party, dropping 9.7% on a weak Q2 forecast and Reed Hastings exiting as chairman after 29 years. Rough day to be a streamer.
The jeremiah babe YouTube crowd is already screaming about debt and drought — gold up $81, silver up $4+ even on peace news — which tells you not everyone is buying the all-clear signal. TD Cowen's Jason Gabelman put it best: the market is "shooting first and asking questions later." With IRGC still requiring ship approvals and no formal written nuclear deal yet, that's probably the right frame. Buckle up for Monday.