Hormuz Is Closed, Oil Is $113, and Somehow the S&P Is Only Down 5% — Here's Why
The weekly sentiment roundup: geopolitical chaos, a Powell pivot, storage stocks ripping, and one very important Tuesday deadline
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STX Seagate Technology Holdings plc | buy | $455.25 | — | — | — |
| WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORP | buy | $304.34 | — | — | — |
| APP AppLovin Corp | buy | $410.99 | — | — | — |
| DVN DEVON ENERGY CORP/DE | buy | $49.51 | — | — | — |
| DAL DELTA AIR LINES, INC. | hold | $66.77 | — | — | — |
| HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. | buy | $69.67 | — | — | — |
| BK Bank of New York Mellon Corp | buy | $123.94 | — | — | — |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | hold | $349.90 | — | — | — |
| IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORP | hold | $246.40 | — | — | — |
Let's set the scene: the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Brent crude is above $109, diesel in San Francisco just crossed $8/gallon for the first time ever, and some Asian nations are on 4-day work weeks because of supply chain chaos. The Dow closed up 165 points on Monday. We are in a simulation.
The actual market savior this week wasn't diplomacy — it was Jay Powell. His Harvard speech on March 30th took rate hikes off the table despite surging oil prices, cratering the 10-year Treasury from 4.482% to ~4.3% and giving bulls something to hold onto. Jim Cramer called it the market bottom. Cramer being right is almost as surprising as the Dow going green during an active Middle East war. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley named $STX a top pick with a price target raised to $582 from $468, citing AI-driven hyperscaler demand — storage quietly becoming the trade of the week while everyone panic-watches oil futures.
CIBC's Rebecca Babin dropped the cold water nobody wanted: even if Iran reopens Hormuz tomorrow, full oil flow restoration takes 1–3 months. Only 15 tankers are moving versus the 60–70 needed. The upside on crude is capped, but so is any relief rally in energy-sensitive names. Credit spreads are blowing out, 40–50% of individual stocks are already 20% below their one-year highs, and Argentina — of all places — is quietly becoming an LNG story worth watching. What a week to be alive.