Hormuz Is Closed, Carnival Is Sailing, and the Internet Cannot Agree on What Happens Next
With the Strait of Hormuz reportedly closed and US-Iran talks wobbling, retail investors are fighting over cruise stocks, oil plays, and the definition of 'geopolitical risk'
Ticker Ratings
Let's set the scene: Iran has reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global oil supply flows — while simultaneously sitting in Switzerland for nuclear talks. The vibes are, to put it mildly, contradictory. Reuters is running wall-to-wall coverage of US and Iranian threats to energy and water facilities, Treasury Secretary Bessent is out here saying America has 'plenty of funds for an Iran war,' and oil is whipsawing like a caffeinated day trader.
Meanwhile, YouTube finance is in full chaos mode. Bloomberg Podcasts' Ian Bremmer called the US-Iran conflict a near-total failure, comparing Trump's backdowns to his China tariff retreat. Patrick Boyle's channel dropped a banger on Anthropic's 90-minute government shutdown notice — right before a nearly $965 billion valuation IPO filing — which has the AI-bubble crowd absolutely frothing. On the cruise side, Stiffel is still a buyer of $CCL into Tuesday earnings with options implying a ~6% move, and Reddit's r/WallStreetBets is treating the Iran interim agreement like a green light on leisure travel. Brave souls.
$FDX reports Q4 Tuesday too, fresh off spinning out its freight division with a new interim CFO — the kind of earnings call where anything can happen and Reddit will blame macroeconomics either way. If the Strait stays closed and Bessent's war chest gets opened, the only sure thing is volatility. Pack sunscreen or short oil futures — either way, this week is not boring.