Hormuz Is Closed and the Market Is Having an Existential Crisis — Here's What Traders Are Actually Doing
Social sentiment is split between panic-selling equity longs and salivating over the next pullback entry point
Ticker Ratings
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively blockaded, Saudi Aramco's CEO just ghosted a major energy conference, and Treasury Secretary Bessent went on record saying the US has 'plenty' of funds for an Iran war — which is either reassuring or terrifying depending on your portfolio. $USO and energy names are the only things on the board with a pulse right now, with Brent crude whipsawing around $90 a barrel as markets try to price in whether this ends in a deal or a disaster.
Meanwhile, over on YouTube, The Traveling Trader is out here pointing to historical midterm data showing 100% positive 12-month forward returns from the bottom in every midterm year since WWII, calling the next pullback a generational buying opportunity. The Nasdaq just strung together 13 consecutive green days — one of the best runs in history — before this mess arrived. TheChartGuys note sellers are failing to defend key all-time high structures on $SPY and $QQQ, with bulls eyeing yearly R1 at 755.12 if things stabilize.
Former SecDef Esper is on Bloomberg saying a deal in 48-72 hours is basically fantasy, but Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are flying to Pakistan anyway — because nothing says 'emergency diplomacy' like a second trip to Islamabad. The market is doing what markets do: pricing in the worst while quietly leaving room to rip if anyone blinks first.