Goldman's Sentiment Gauge Just Hit 1.7 — Hedge Funds Are Bailing on Tech While the S&P Parties at All-Time Highs
Records on the S&P, a monster AI earnings wave, and the largest institutional de-risking in four years — all at the same time. Sure, fine.
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST | hold | $731.84 | — | — | — |
| AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC | buy | $415.18 | — | — | — |
| UBER Uber Technologies, Inc | buy | $78.92 | — | — | — |
| NVO NOVO NORDISK A S | buy | $46.19 | — | — | — |
| SMCI Super Micro Computer, Inc. | hold | $32.45 | — | — | — |
| INTC INTEL CORP | buy | $111.13 | — | — | — |
| DIS Walt Disney Co | buy | $106.92 | — | — | — |
| CVS CVS HEALTH Corp | hold | $85.70 | — | — | — |
| GS GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | hold | $938.38 | — | — | — |
Goldman Sachs' equity sentiment gauge just printed 1.7 — a level that screams 'stretched positioning' — while hedge funds staged the largest risk unwind since the 2021 meme stock era, slashing exposure to mega-cap tech leaders. And yet: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at all-time highs, with the S&P up 58 points and the Nasdaq up 258. The market heard the warning and ordered dessert anyway.
What's fueling the bull case? Take your pick. Reports of a US-Iran memorandum of understanding to end the two-month war and potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz sent futures surging. $AMD jumped nearly 19% on blowout Q1 results and AI-driven data center demand. $UBER popped ~9% on gross bookings up 21% year-over-year. ADP private payrolls came in at 109,000 vs. an 84,000 estimate. Even $NVO surged over 9% in Copenhagen on obesity pill momentum. The bull thesis is basically running a relay race with fresh legs every hour.
The bears do have receipts: gas is averaging $4.50/gallon nationally, BlackRock's Rick Rieder flags a massive disconnect between buoyant equities and a bond market absorbing $520 billion in weekly Treasury supply, and Anthropic's Dario Amodei just told a room full of important people that Chinese AI will match the US in 6 to 12 months. The S&P forward PE sits at ~25x — elevated, but still below last year's 28x peak. Sentiment is 'cranky' and disbelieving, which historically is either a contrarian buy signal or the last words before a correction — and the market has decided it's the former, at least for today.