Bombs, Bonds, and the Bull Case: How a US-Iran MOU Just Reshuffled Every Major Trade
Geopolitics, the Fed's new sheriff, and a robotaxi war converge in one very chaotic week
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO United States Oil Fund, LP | sell | $115.18 | — | — | — |
| UBER Uber Technologies, Inc | hold | $71.94 | — | — | — |
| LCID Lucid Group, Inc. | buy | $5.27 | — | — | — |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | sell | $32.79 | — | — | — |
| CME CME GROUP INC. | hold | $249.06 | — | — | — |
| SPCX SPACE EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGIES CORP | hold | $199.11 | — | — | — |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | sell | $402.52 | — | — | — |
| HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co | buy | $49.42 | — | — | — |
The headline trade of the week is simple: oil crashed from ~$95 to ~$74-76 after the Strait of Hormuz reopening and a 14-point US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding emerged at the G7 in Geneva. Goldman Sachs has WTI pegged at $75 by year-end, with Middle Eastern exports back to normal by July and Iranian production recovering by October. The catch? Trump went on camera and said the MOU is "not final" and he'd go "right back to dropping bombs" if he doesn't like how things shake out. Ceasefire risk premium, meet Trump wild-card premium.
Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh is officially the most scrutinized new hire in finance. His first Fed meeting is expected to deliver a rate hold, but markets are pricing in roughly one hike over the next 6-12 months, with a full cut not on the table until Q1 2027. MUFG's George Convis is calling this the "summer of the bond market" with rates having peaked — but Warsh's likely move to kill the dot plot means the Fed's communication playbook just got shredded. Lower oil from the Hormuz reopening is the Fed's one piece of good news: it provides inflation cover to stay patient without looking reckless.
The most quietly wild signal? Strip out just 41 companies from the S&P 500 and the remaining 459 are flat on the year — the entire 2026 rally is one AI trade, Warren Buffett is sitting on a record $400 billion in cash, and consumer sentiment just hit 44.8, the lowest reading since 1952. When the world's greatest investor is hoarding cash and consumers are this spooked, the bull thesis is doing a lot of heavy lifting on vibes alone.