War, Oil, and a 3% Rip: Q1 2026 Ends With Markets Playing 'Will They Won't They' With Iran
Geopolitics ran the tape this week — here's what social sentiment actually tells us about where we go from here
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL Marvell Technology, Inc. | buy | $101.00 | — | — | — |
| FNMA FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE | hold | $7.26 | — | — | — |
| FMCC FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE CORP | hold | $6.40 | — | — | — |
| BSX BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP | sell | $62.87 | — | — | — |
| NKE NIKE, Inc. | hold | $48.03 | — | — | — |
| AL AIR LEASE CORP | buy | $64.94 | — | — | — |
| CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM CO | buy | $59.06 | — | — | — |
| PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc | buy | $162.20 | — | — | — |
| BYND BEYOND MEAT, INC. | sell | $0.63 | — | — | — |
Let's set the scene: Q1 2026 closes with the S&P 500 up ~3% on the day, down ~4.7% on the year, oil sitting at WTI $101 / Brent $104, and gas hitting $7/gallon in California. Iran's president signaled he's open to ending the war — with the small caveat of wanting reparations, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and a pinky promise nobody bombs them again. Markets said 'close enough' and went full send.
The week's biggest social sentiment movers were wild. $MRVL surged ~13% after Nvidia dropped a $2 billion strategic investment in silicon photonics — the kind of insider validation that makes your watchlist feel like it's mocking you. Meanwhile, $FNMA and $FMCC went full meme stock, ripping 51% and 47% respectively after Bill Ackman called them 'stupidly cheap' on a potential 10x conservatorship exit. $BSX got absolutely cooked — down ~9% on Watchman trial data that analysts charitably called 'not a home run.'
Cboe's Mandy Xu flagged that options traders were selling into the rally rather than chasing it — a historically rare oil call skew seen only in 2008, 2011, and 2022, each preceding significant further upside in crude. The Fed is stuck watching, rate cut odds flipped from 92% chance of cuts to a 61% probability of no change in just three weeks. If Iran peace talks collapse over the weekend, none of today's green means anything — and the options market already knows it.