Loading…
A 5-day pause on Iranian strikes triggered a face-ripping rally, but the Strait of Hormuz is still a mess and Iran says none of this is real
Let's set the scene: Brent crude was flirting with $150/barrel, Qatar's LNG facilities had just been torched (potentially offline for 5 years), and Bloomberg's oil analyst was calling it the worst supply disruption since the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Then Trump posted on social media. NASDAQ +2%. S&P +150 points. Gold -3.7% to $4,400/oz. Oil? Down 10% in an afternoon. The algos didn't even wait for Iran's response — which, for the record, was Iran's parliamentary speaker calling the whole thing 'fake news to manipulate oil markets.'
So here's the uncomfortable truth the bulls don't want to hear: the S&P 500 has now closed below its 200-day moving average for three straight sessions (6,624), which per CNBC's Joe Terranova is the exact trigger that flips systematic trend-following funds bearish — see 2022, when 149 days below led to a 20% drawdown. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz still has a dozen Iranian mines in it, Qatar LNG is offline, and IBD is still waiting on a confirmed follow-through day before calling anything a real rally. The relief is real. The resolution? Very much not.
Bright spots exist: managed futures ETFs are having their moment again (shades of DBMF's +22% in 2022), cruise lines popped 5-7% on de-escalation vibes, $AAPL successor drama is heating up with hardware chief John Ternus emerging as Tim Cook's heir, and $PALANTIR jumped 6.8% after its Maven AI got Pentagon program-of-record status. The market wants a reason to party — it just keeps getting handed a flaming pinata instead.