The Week the Strait of Hormuz Broke Everything — Except $TSLA
Tesla beats estimates while the world's most important waterway stays blocked — plus Apple names its next CEO and psychedelics get a presidential endorsement
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | buy | $376.60 | — | — | — |
| AAPL Apple Inc. | hold | $272.03 | — | — | — |
| CPWR Ocean Thermal Energy Corp | buy | $0.01 | — | — | — |
| AMZN AMAZON COM INC | buy | $253.52 | — | — | — |
| MPWR MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC | hold | $1517.44 | — | — | — |
| CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. | buy | $455.16 | — | — | — |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | buy | $425.84 | — | — | — |
| BX Blackstone Inc. | buy | $128.63 | — | — | — |
| ADBE ADOBE INC. | buy | $250.57 | — | — | — |
| GEO GEO GROUP INC | hold | $18.50 | — | — | — |
Let's start with the elephant in the room wearing an oil-soaked tuxedo: the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, ~20% of global oil and LNG flows are disrupted, and the US-Iran ceasefire is best described as 'we're not shooting, but we're also not talking.' WTI crude surged past $100/barrel at peak panic, Citigroup warned prices could hit $110 if the blockade persists another month, and top traders at Vitol, Gunvor, and Trafigura are openly using the R-word (recession). Markets wobbled but didn't collapse — which is either impressive resilience or deeply suspicious, depending on your vibe.
Meanwhile, $TSLA had absolutely no interest in your geopolitical anxiety. Q1 adjusted EPS came in at $0.41 vs. the $0.34 estimate, gross margin hit 21.1% vs. 17.7% expected, and free cash flow flipped from a consensus estimate of negative $1.86 billion to a very positive $1.44 billion. Robotaxi miles doubled sequentially, FSD got approved in the Netherlands, and Optimus humanoid robot production is reportedly on track. The stock popped ~4% after hours and earned every basis point.
Elsewhere: $AAPL named hardware chief John Ternus as its next CEO effective September 1st (Tim Cook out, Apple's AI problem very much still in), psychedelic stocks like Compass Pathways went full moon after Trump signed an EO fast-tracking therapeutic research, and Spirit Airlines reportedly offered the US government an equity stake to avoid liquidation — which is either creative finance or the plot of a very bad movie.
Kevin Warsh pledged Fed independence at his confirmation hearing and everyone nodded politely while checking oil futures.