The Iran Deal, Fed Hawk Warsh, and a Semis Super Cycle: The Week the Market Finally Had a Plot

Let's set the scene: oil was cratering, chips were ripping, and the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh walked into his first press conference and basically said 'dot plot? never heard of her.' Markets priced a 72% probability of a September rate hike by end of session — welcome to the Warsh era, where ambiguity is the message.

The week's biggest macro driver was the US-Iran interim deal reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent crude sliding while Asian semis went full send — $INTC surged over 10% on a Trump-backed Apple domestic chip partnership, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit a record high, up 6.4%. Goldman Sachs dropped a semiconductor super cycle call. The hype was real and the momentum was realer. Meanwhile, $ACN cratered 15-20% on guidance, confirming the street's new religion: long semis, short consultants. Seth Klarman called this market 'stretched and euphoric.' He's not wrong — but try telling that to anyone holding chips this week.

The Knicks won their first championship in 53 years and generated $380 million in economic impact. Somehow that felt like the most rational thing that happened all week.