The Internet Spent All Week Arguing About Iran While Seth Klarman Quietly Called This Market 'Euphoric'

The social sentiment firehose this week pointed in one direction: Middle East geopolitics. YouTube was flooded with Iran takes — from Bloomberg's nuanced breakdown of the 60-day Hormuz MOU to Jeremiah Babe warning that US strategic petroleum reserves are four weeks from depletion. Oil whipsawed as the deal was announced, delayed, partially confirmed, and then questioned again. Andrei Jikh clocked the 10-year Treasury yield up 75 basis points since the Iran war began — bond market stress isn't subtle anymore.

Meanwhile, the week's most quietly terrifying content came from Seth Klarman's Bloomberg appearance: the Baupost founder called today's market 'stretched and euphoric,' flagged the IPO supply glut headlined by $SPCE-adjacent SpaceX (down 18% from highs, lock-up expirations incoming), and warned about AI speculation running hot. Andrei Jikh separately noted central banks now hold gold above US Treasuries as their top reserve asset — for the first time in modern history. The Traveling Trader, meanwhile, is pounding the table on a July QQQ seasonal trade (93% hit rate over 15 years when bought at the June 22nd close, median return 4.7%). One of these people is going to be very right.

BHP's outgoing CEO Mike Henry made the copper bull case on Bloomberg — demand nearly doubling over 25 years — while $CCL heads into Tuesday earnings with options pricing a ~6% move and the cruise thesis now directly tied to whether the Hormuz deal holds. Markets are basically a geopolitical sentiment poll at this point, and the poll results change every four hours.