The SpaceX (SPAX) IPO is officially the largest in human history — $75 billion raised, priced at $135/share, $100B in retail orders, and a market cap kissing $1.8 trillion. To put that in perspective: it listed at roughly 90-99x revenue. Former Nasdaq CEO Bob Greifeld told CNBC investors need to evaluate it through 'vision and imagination' — which, translated, means your DCF model is useless here, babe.
YouTube is a full knife fight on whether to buy. Fundstrat's Tom Lee calls Musk an 'N of one' leader and pushes back on the 1999 bubble comparisons. Investor's Business Daily drops the cold water: statistically, 90% of IPOs eventually trade below their first-day low — they recommend waiting for an IPO base to form within the first 25 days, citing Google's 2004 playbook. Meanwhile, Simon Dixon on YouTube went full conspiracy, calling the entire Iran deal announcement timed theater to juice liquidity for the SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic IPO wave. Dramatic? Yes. Zero shares of nuance? Also yes.
The macro backdrop is genuinely wild: Trump canceled Iran strikes, the S&P 500 surged ~1.4%, Nasdaq 100 jumped 2.6%, the SOX semiconductor index ripped 5.7%, and WTI crude fell to ~$86.50 — airlines, cruise lines, and semis all partying like it's 2021. RBC's Helima Croft is the designated adult in the room, noting Iran's Supreme Leader hasn't confirmed anything and the Strait of Hormuz is still very much a storyline. ARK Invest has a $300 billion Starlink valuation thesis embedded in SPAX. Morningstar flagged that QQQ investors are already along for the ride whether they want to be or not — Nasdaq changed its rules in May to allow mega-cap IPO fast-tracking into the index. You didn't opt into SpaceX. SpaceX opted into you.
