Semis Up 60%, S&P Breadth at 30-Year Lows: The Most Hated Rally in History Is Also the Most Dangerous
This week's social sentiment roundup: semiconductors hit mania territory, Tesla gets a White House field trip, and GameStop tries to buy eBay (yes, really)
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | hold | $798.49 | — | — | — |
| QCOM QUALCOMM INC/DE | hold | $238.85 | — | — | — |
| INTC INTEL CORP | hold | $128.63 | — | — | — |
| AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC | buy | $458.02 | — | — | — |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | buy | $444.20 | — | — | — |
| GME GameStop Corp. | sell | $22.00 | — | — | — |
| EBAY EBAY INC | hold | $107.66 | — | — | — |
| TTD Trade Desk, Inc. | sell | $21.45 | — | — | — |
| MNDY monday.com Ltd. | buy | $76.53 | — | — | — |
| ANGI Angi Inc. | sell | $5.13 | — | — | — |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | buy | $25.13 | — | — | — |
| WFC WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | sell | $73.79 | — | — | — |
| JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | hold | $299.93 | — | — | — |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | hold | $411.80 | — | — | — |
| AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | buy | $447.10 | — | — | — |
Let's start with the number that should terrify you: only 49% of S&P 500 components are above their own 50-day moving averages while the index sits at all-time highs — the worst breadth reading in 30 years of data, per BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky. Seven names are responsible for 70% of S&P 500 returns. $MU is trading 170% above its 200-day moving average. $QCOM ripped 8.5% in a single session. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up ~60% in six weeks. Cramer's calling it a 1999 parallel. Michael Burry agrees. Paul Tudor Jones is still buying. Nobody is neutral.
Meanwhile, the macro backdrop is genuinely unhinged: WTI crude at $99, Brent near $104, the Strait of Hormuz blocked for ~12 weeks, a US-Iran war with a ceasefire on 'massive life support,' and US equities closing at record highs anyway. $TSLA caught a 3.9% bid after Musk scored a White House invite to join Trump's China trade trip — which, given their history of building China's only foreign-owned factory without a JV, actually makes strategic sense. The Clarity Act stablecoin bill has 60% prediction market odds of passing Senate committee. And $GME's Ryan Cohen dropped a $55.5 billion unsolicited bid for eBay — with a $12B market cap and $28B in shares he isn't authorized to issue yet. Somewhere, a risk manager just quit.
The week's real tell? Rotation is nowhere. Banks are breaking down. Non-tech is getting 'savagely punished' per Cramer. Chris Verrone at Strategas is flagging cracks in $WFC and $JPM. This rally is eating itself from the inside out — and the chips are the last ones dancing.