Reddit's War Trade: S&P 500 Up 7 Straight Days But the Strait of Hormuz Is Doing All the Heavy Lifting

Seven consecutive green days on the S&P 500 and Reddit's investing subs are cautiously popping champagne — but the fine print is brutal. Bloomberg's podcast coverage this week makes it clear: this entire rally is a ceasefire trade. Gas prices are up 40% ($1.17/gallon) since the war started, inflation just printed +0.9% month-over-month (biggest single-month jump in four years), and the Fed is quietly stress-testing major banks on private credit exposure. Cool, cool, cool.

TheChartGuys dropped a video flagging a V-shape recovery attempt with semiconductors ($SMH, $SOXX, $MU) leading the charge — their analyst is 70% bullish on bull flags returning to all-time highs. But software ($IGV) is still the ugly duckling, and rotation out of semis without software catching a bid is the classic bear-rally warning sign WSB loves to ignore until it's too late.

Meanwhile Andrei Jikh on YouTube is out here comparing a potential US geopolitical retreat to Britain's 1956 Suez Canal moment — which is either galaxy-brained doom-posting or the most important macro call of the year, and Reddit can't decide which. Treasury yields at 5-6%+ competing with equities for capital is not a vibe. The ceasefire better be real, or those seven green candles are going to look very lonely very soon.