Reddit's War Trade Is Getting Spicy: $MOS, $CF, and Defense Stocks Are the Hormuz Plays Nobody's Talking About
Reddit's DD crowd is quietly rotating into fertilizer, defense, and energy plays while the rest of the market celebrates a 13-day NASDAQ winning streak
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOS MOSAIC CO | buy | $24.70 | — | — | — |
| CF CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | buy | $115.90 | — | — | — |
| LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP | buy | $592.00 | — | — | — |
| RTX RTX Corp | buy | $196.25 | — | — | — |
| NOC NORTHROP GRUMMAN CORP /DE/ | buy | $666.40 | — | — | — |
| GD GENERAL DYNAMICS CORP | buy | $340.32 | — | — | — |
| OXY OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP /DE/ | hold | $54.88 | — | — | — |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | sell | $12.43 | — | — | — |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | sell | $99.22 | — | — | — |
| BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF | hold | $75066.00 | — | — | — |
While the broader market was busy celebrating the NASDAQ's 13-consecutive-day green streak — one of the best runs in recorded history — Reddit's sharpest DD writers were quietly asking: what breaks first? The answer, per the highest-upvoted threads this week, is the supply chain hiding behind the Strait of Hormuz. Diesel at $5.49/gallon, gas kissing $4, and the Energy Secretary openly saying prices probably won't fall below $3/gallon until next year? That's not a blip. That's a thesis.
The underrated angle that's getting traction in investing subs: fertilizer. With 30% of fertilizer supply moving through the Strait of Hormuz and Alabama farmers already reporting shortages during planting season, the r/investing crowd is sniffing around $MOS and $CF like they found a secret menu item. Meanwhile the Pentagon just dropped a $1.5 trillion budget request — with a $100–200 billion Iran conflict supplemental baked in — and defense names are getting a second look. Former SecDef Esper is on tape saying a deal in 48–72 hours is basically fantasy, which WSB took as a green light.
The contrarian wrinkle? Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone is calling the Hormuz disruption a "temporary aberration" with Brent around $90/barrel, and historical midterm data shows 100% positive 12-month forward returns from every midterm bottom since WWII — so the dip buyers aren't wrong either. The war trade and the recovery trade are both live. Pick your poison, just don't pick both and call it diversification.