Reddit Is Losing Its Mind Over $UAL's $7–$11 EPS Range — That's Not Guidance, That's a Shrug

Reddit's investing subs are fixated on $UAL right now, and honestly? Fair. United Airlines just delivered a beat on Q1 but slashed full-year adjusted EPS guidance from $12–$14 down to $7–$11 — a range so wide you could fly a 737 MAX through it. The culprit is jet fuel, which has nearly doubled thanks to the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed for eight weeks, disrupting roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows. Meanwhile, $AAL is swirling in merger rumor limbo after Trump publicly opposed a United-American deal on Squawk Box, while Kirby did his best "I can neither confirm nor deny" impression.

Over on the low-cost carrier side, $SAVE is basically a cautionary tale in a Spirit Airlines uniform — structurally disadvantaged against majors with loyalty programs, premium cabins, and credit card cash flows. High-upvote DD threads are correctly identifying the bifurcation: premium demand is holding, basic economy is getting torched. $DAL quietly refused to update its full-year outlook, which Reddit read as either genius or cowardice depending on the sub.

With 15–20% airfare increases coming per Kirby, oil stubbornly near $95, and top traders at Vitol and Trafigura warning of recession risk, the airline trade right now is less "buy the dip" and more "identify which carrier has the best fuel hedges and pray."