Peace Deal Pops Markets 2%: Oil Gets Wrecked While Travel Stocks Party Like It's 2019
Bloomberg's YouTube coverage is wall-to-wall on the US-Iran deal — and the market rotation is exactly as chaotic as you'd expect
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BP BP PLC | sell | $41.26 | — | — | — |
| SHEL Shell plc | sell | $82.24 | — | — | — |
| JBLU JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP | buy | $5.30 | — | — | — |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | buy | $120.90 | — | — | — |
| SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST | buy | $750.80 | — | — | — |
| QQQ INVESCO QQQ TRUST, SERIES 1 | buy | $735.83 | — | — | — |
| TKO TKO Group Holdings, Inc. | hold | $200.76 | — | — | — |
The US and Iran shook hands on an interim deal — 60-day ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz reopening, $12 billion in unfrozen Iranian funds — and markets absolutely lost their minds in the best way. NASDAQ futures up 2.1%, S&P futures up 1.3%, WTI crude cratering 5.6% to $80.16. Treasury yields dropped 6 basis points as inflation expectations eased. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, per Bloomberg's coverage, now walks into his first FOMC meeting with one fewer headache — though analysts still expect a hold given inflation running at its fastest pace in three years.
The rotation is brutal and beautiful. $BP and $SHEL are among the biggest FTSE 100 fallers — oil majors don't love peace. Meanwhile, EasyJet and Wizz Air are ripping higher on cheaper jet fuel and fewer geopolitical nightmares. Over at Bunzl, Elliott Management quietly grabbed a ~5% stake and immediately started demanding a 10% share buyback and a strategic review of North American ops. Classic Elliott — show up, make noise, collect check.
Bloomberg skeptics are right to pump the brakes though: the MOU is reportedly one to two pages long vs. the original JCPOA's 120+ pages, verification details are unresolved, and Iran is still sitting on roughly 1,000 pounds of enriched uranium. Markets are pricing in a done deal; diplomats are pricing in a very long summer.