Oil's Wild Week: Brent Hits $109, BP Rips 4%, and Your Airline Stocks Are Crying

If your portfolio survived this week intact, congratulations — you either own $BP or you weren't paying attention. Trump's rare primetime address killed any hopes of a quick Iran resolution, sending Brent crude up 7.5% to ~$109/barrel and WTI above $107. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed — down roughly 19 million barrels per day versus normal — and Goldman's Daan Struyven is already calling Q4 oil prices $20 higher than pre-war forecasts. Energy names $BP, $SHEL, and $TTE were the rare bright spots, with BP topping the Stoxx 600 gainers list.

Meanwhile, $NKE got absolutely cooked — down ~11% pre-market, already off 17% YTD, citing Iran war disruptions in EMEA, inventory buildup, and a turnaround that's proving stubbornly non-linear. Goldman, BofA, and JPMorgan all issued downgrades. $RH wasn't spared either, dropping 22% after a $30M tariff hit and Q1 revenue guided down 2-4%. Airlines got torched on fuel cost fears — United down ~4%. The week's only real comfort came from a brief peace-hope rally that briefly pushed the S&P up 2.9% and the Nikkei up over 5%, but markets gave most of it back when Trump started talking about hitting Iran's electrical grid.

Morgan Stanley's Ellen Zentner is putting recession probability at 40% — higher than consensus — and Charles Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders notes the S&P forward P/E has already compressed from 23.1 to 19.6. This is the worst month for balanced portfolios since 2022, and bonds still aren't diversifying the way they're supposed to. Javier Blas over at Bloomberg warned oil could go much, much higher if this drags on — Singapore diesel is already approaching $200/barrel. Sleep tight.