Oil Surges, Stocks Rip, and Nobody Can Agree If the Strait Is Open — Welcome to Your Weird Week
From $ADBE's AI glow-up to WTI spiking above $88, social chatter hit peak chaos this week — and somehow the S&P 500 still hit record highs
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE ADOBE INC. | buy | $247.97 | — | — | — |
| QXO QXO, Inc. | buy | $23.91 | — | — | — |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | hold | $338.54 | — | — | — |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | hold | $391.84 | — | — | — |
| HON HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC | hold | $229.67 | — | — | — |
| BRC BRADY CORP | buy | $83.60 | — | — | — |
| LLY ELI LILLY & Co | buy | $926.35 | — | — | — |
| SCHW SCHWAB CHARLES CORP | hold | $93.12 | — | — | — |
| BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF | buy | $76437.00 | — | — | — |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | sell | $156.16 | — | — | — |
Let's set the scene: Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz, markets explode higher with the S&P 500 posting its biggest weekly gain since 2020 (over 3%) and the Nasdaq logging its longest positive streak since 1992 — then IRGC gunboats start firing on tankers and the whole thing unravels before Monday morning coffee. WTI crude surged 5.7% to $88.65/barrel and Brent hit $95 after the U.S. Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman. Kuwait declared force majeure on shipments. Insurers are refusing to send ships through. Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone says crude is range-bound $80–$100 near-term but sees a long-term target of $50 by midterms. Markets are, to put it diplomatically, pricing in vibes.
Meanwhile in actually-happening news: $ADBE popped 2.8% after announcing an agentic AI ecosystem with AWS, Anthropic, Google Cloud, Microsoft, Nvidia, and OpenAI — CEO Shantanu Narayen also announced his retirement after nearly 20 years, which felt like burying the lede. $QXO is acquiring TopBuild in a $17 billion deal at low-to-mid teens EBITDA while QXO trades at over 20x — Brad Jacobs called it 'highly accretive' and honestly the math checks out. Jersey Mike's filed for an IPO targeting a $12 billion valuation, up from the ~$8 billion Blackstone paid in early 2024. The sandwich economy is thriving.
The AI dot-com parallels are getting louder — Morningstar's Dave flagged that a shoe company (Allbirds, ticker: $ARNA — wait, no, they sold the shoe biz) pivoted to AI and ran from ~$2.50 to over $20 before retreating, and a photo platform literally added '.ai' to its name for a stock pop. It's 1999 with better GPUs and worse interest rates — enjoy the ride, but keep one hand on the exit.