Oil Craters 7%, S&P Erases War Losses — The Market Is Betting on a Deal It Doesn't Have Yet
From bank earnings chaos to a US Navy blockade, social sentiment this week was all geopolitical whiplash and surprising market resilience
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WFC WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | sell | $81.71 | — | — | — |
| JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | hold | $310.81 | — | — | — |
| GS GOLDMAN SACHS GROUP INC | hold | $909.48 | — | — | — |
| ORCL ORACLE CORP | buy | $163.44 | — | — | — |
| FSLY Fastly, Inc. | hold | $21.00 | — | — | — |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | buy | $97.20 | — | — | — |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | hold | $12.09 | — | — | — |
| BX Blackstone Inc. | buy | $126.40 | — | — | — |
| AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC | buy | $253.48 | — | — | — |
| INTC INTEL CORP | hold | $63.66 | — | — | — |
| HPQ HP INC | hold | $18.98 | — | — | — |
Let's get the absurdity on the table first: S&P 500 up ~1%, WTI crude down 7%+, and the US Navy simultaneously blockading the Strait of Hormuz — all in the same session. Markets erased every loss since the Iran war began on little more than Trump saying Iran "wants to make a deal," even as peace talks in Islamabad collapsed after 15 hours and two supertankers did U-turns near Larak Island. The vibe was less "rational price discovery" and more "speed-running denial." Tom Lee on CNBC helpfully noted that $30B/month in defense spending is actually stimulative, which, sure, Tom.
Bank earnings were the week's other main character. $JPM printed its highest-ever quarterly trading revenue and still got sold. $WFC missed on both net interest income and non-interest income, logging near its worst day in a year. $C was the quiet winner, rallying 3.5% on broad business strength. Meanwhile Goldman's FICC desk missed by $800 million — David Solomon called it the 10th best quarter ever, which is technically a defense. On the tech side, $ORCL was the week's biggest S&P gainer at +12.7% on AI infrastructure news, and $FSLY is quietly up 191% in six months while everyone's distracted by missiles.
The real macro horror show? The IMF projecting 2.5% global growth and 5.4% inflation if oil stays near $100 — and oil was at $90 with a blockade that hasn't fully bitten yet. The ceasefire expires April 22nd. Price accordingly.