Oil at $99, S&P Down Three Weeks Straight, and Iran Just Closed the Hormuz — Good Morning

Let's just say it: this was not a week for the bulls. The S&P 500 closed down ~2% on the week — its third consecutive losing week — while the Mag Seven index slid into correction territory. WTI crude hit $99.31 and Brent settled above $100/barrel, both up roughly 70% year-to-date. Bloomberg Economics is now floating a $164/barrel scenario if Hormuz disruptions persist for three months. That's not a tail risk anymore. That's a calendar reminder.

The loudest sentiment surge this week came around energy and geopolitics — no shock there. Bloomberg Podcasts' Balance of Power coverage of the Hormuz closure went massively viral in financial YouTube circles, and the doom-scrolling crowd on Reddit found its spirit animal in the Jeremiah Babe upload warning of a foreclosure tsunami alongside Dow down 119 and NASDAQ down 206 on Friday alone. Meanwhile, $UAMY chatter remained elevated after last week's $27M DoD grant spotlight — the antimony trade isn't done talking.

The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its March meeting, but with PCE inflation now tracking toward ~3% on the back of an $80+ oil baseline, the "cuts are coming" crowd is getting increasingly nervous about what those cuts even mean in a wartime commodity supercycle.

Three weeks of losses, $100 oil, a closed strait, and record household debt at $18.8 trillion — and somehow the most searched ticker on BullApe this week was still $NVDA. We contain multitudes.