Oil at $140, Iran at War, and the Market Is Somehow Only Down 61 Points — Make It Make Sense

Let's set the scene: WTI crude is up 11% to $112/barrel, dated Brent is touching $140 — its highest since 2008 — diesel in Europe is near $200/barrel, and the US is actively bombing Iran. The S&P 500 closed down a handful of points. The VIX is sitting at a not-exactly-calm 25–26. We are in a simulation.

The macro picture is genuinely schizophrenic. March jobs came in at 178,000 vs. 65,000 expected — a blowout — but wage growth slipped to 3.5% year-over-year, the softest since May 2021, while U6 underemployment ticked up to 8.0%. Meanwhile, 70% of Americans live paycheck to paycheck (per Bloomberg's Operation HOPE segment), and Amazon just slapped a 3.5% fuel surcharge on FBA sellers starting April 17th. That oil price isn't abstract — it's a consumer tax landing in real time. Ed Yardeni still has his S&P 500 year-end target at 7,700 and says the bottom is in. Bold, king.

Big bank earnings are the next real catalyst — $JPM guided for mid-teen capital markets growth, $GS earns ~50% from trading and loves volatility, and $BAC, $C, $WFC, and $MS are all in the queue. If oil stays here and stagflation fears harden, their loan books get complicated fast. $SPCE targeting a $2 trillion IPO valuation — bigger than Meta — might be the most audacious flex of the year, but when physical crude is masking itself in futures markets and Iran still controls drones and missiles, maybe we should all be buying balance funds and a generator.