Oil at $112, Iran Blocking the Strait, and YouTube's Finance Bros Are Losing Their Minds
The Strait of Hormuz is closed, oil is melting faces, and the Fed is completely boxed in — YouTube's finance world has thoughts
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Let's set the scene: the Strait of Hormuz has been shut for over a month, over 10 million barrels per day of Gulf production is sitting landlocked, WTI is trading near $110/barrel, and Iran has responded to ceasefire proposals by... instituting a toll system on ships. Yes, a toll system. As Bloomberg Podcasts pointed out, Tehran didn't just block the strait — they monetized it. Diabolical, honestly.
Meanwhile, ClearValue Tax is ringing alarm bells on the jobs report: 178,000 jobs added in March sounds great until you realize February was quietly revised to -133,000. Unemployment dropped to 4.3%, wage growth slipped to 3.5%, and CME FedWatch now shows a 0% chance of a rate cut on April 29th. The Fed wanted a reason to cut — the jobs market just took that excuse out back and shot it. Add money supply growing over 10% and your purchasing power is basically doing a Carvana in a down market.
On the bright side, Dan Ives (Bloomberg Podcasts) is still bullish on software — calling $MSFT, $ORCL, and $CRM underappreciated while everyone piles into semis — and Goldman Sachs just upgraded $NFLX to Buy with a $1,020 price target, citing strong Q1 2026 earnings ahead of its April 16th report. Gulf sovereign wealth funds from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Abu Dhabi are dropping $24 billion in equity commitments to back Paramount Skydance's $81 billion Warner Brothers Discovery buyout — which sounds exciting until you see that $WBD stock barely moved. The market knows a debt-heavy media merger when it smells one.
SpaceX potentially going public at a $75 billion raise is the one piece of news that could actually make people forget about $4.12 gas — at least for a weekend.