Oil Above $104, Strait of Hormuz on the Brink, and Your Portfolio Is Having a Moment
The US-Iran conflict is now the market's operating system — and everything from chip stocks to mortgage giants is running on it
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP | buy | $172.25 | — | — | — |
| CVX CHEVRON CORP | buy | $211.40 | — | — | — |
| AA Alcoa Corp | buy | $63.21 | — | — | — |
| CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM CO | buy | $53.30 | — | — | — |
| MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC | sell | $314.35 | — | — | — |
| PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc | hold | $154.49 | — | — | — |
| FNMA FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE | hold | $7.33 | — | — | — |
| FMCC FEDERAL HOME LOAN MORTGAGE CORP | hold | $6.44 | — | — | — |
| SYY SYSCO CORP | sell | $69.34 | — | — | — |
| BSX BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORP | sell | $63.00 | — | — | — |
| LMT LOCKHEED MARTIN CORP | buy | $599.45 | — | — | — |
| RTX RTX Corp | buy | $186.81 | — | — | — |
| TMUS T-Mobile US, Inc. | hold | $213.80 | — | — | — |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | hold | $533.93 | — | — | — |
Let's set the scene: $12 trillion in global wealth erased over five weeks, WTI crude above $104 (Brent topping $114), the Strait of Hormuz still a geopolitical grenade with the pin half-pulled, and the S&P 500 down while the Dow plays both sides of the field in the same session. Mohamed El-Erian is warning of a combined price-and-demand shock. JPMorgan dropped a doomsday oil note. Even the pawn shops are feeling it — one dealer reports people selling gold daily just to cover mortgage payments. Totally fine. Everything is fine.
The sector rotation story writes itself: $XOM and $CVX are up roughly 40% year-to-date, while $MU is down 30%+ since March 18th earnings and got body-slammed again this week after Google claimed a memory-reducing breakthrough. $FNMA and $FMCC went full meme stock — surging 51% and 47% respectively after Bill Ackman called them 'stupidly cheap' on the potential conservatorship exit trade. Meanwhile, aluminum is quietly having its moment: $AA up 8% after Iranian strikes on regional facilities, with a JPMorgan bull note adding rocket fuel. Rate cut expectations? Completely vaporized — markets now price a 61% chance rates stay flat through year-end, with a 39% chance of hikes. Three weeks ago that number was zero.
Cramer thinks the cybersecurity selloff is dumb, Palo Alto's CEO just bought $10 million of his own stock, and somehow a PSA 10 Charizard sold for $550,000 — which at this point feels like the most rational trade of the week.