Netflix Faceplants, Airlines Soar, and the Strait of Hormuz Is Running the Whole Market Now
Iran talks, a 12-day Nasdaq streak, and one very confused sneaker brand — your weekly sentiment breakdown
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX NETFLIX INC | hold | $96.90 | — | — | — |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | buy | $95.90 | — | — | — |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | hold | $12.38 | — | — | — |
| JBLU JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP | hold | $5.61 | — | — | — |
| AMZN AMAZON COM INC | buy | $250.54 | — | — | — |
| GSAT Globalstar, Inc. | buy | $79.90 | — | — | — |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | buy | $424.36 | — | — | — |
| NVDA NVIDIA CORP | buy | $198.55 | — | — | — |
| HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. | buy | $87.39 | — | — | — |
| JPM JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | buy | $311.00 | — | — | — |
| WFC WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN | sell | $81.40 | — | — | — |
| LYV Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. | sell | $160.25 | — | — | — |
| TPR TAPESTRY, INC. | buy | $150.69 | — | — | — |
Let's start with the elephant — or rather, the naval blockade — in the room. The US-Iran conflict and its chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz was the single biggest market driver this week, full stop. The S&P 500 crossed 7,000 and the Nasdaq 100 logged 11 straight days of gains (last seen in 2017) almost entirely on ceasefire optimism, with WTI crude cratering ~8% to $91/barrel on peace talk headlines. The Fed's Beige Book confirmed businesses are in full wait-and-see mode on hiring and CapEx — because nothing says "invest in the future" like a naval blockade.
Meanwhile, $NFLX had the most 'great job, still fired' quarter imaginable: Q1 revenue up 16% to $12.3B, EPS of $1.23 vs. $0.76 expected, free cash flow of $5.1B vs. $2.7B estimated — and shares still fell ~9% after hours because Q2 EPS guidance of $0.78 missed the $0.84 street estimate. Heavy sports content amortization (MLB, boxing) is eating margins, and Wall Street wanted a guidance raise after recent price hikes. Didn't get it. Airlines had the opposite energy: $UAL CEO Scott Kirby floated a merger with $AAL to the Trump administration, the sector ripped 5.25%+, and $JBLU popped 17% on takeover speculation.
The chaos-trade of the week? Allbirds sold its entire shoe business and announced a rebrand to 'New Bird AI' as a GPU-as-a-service company, spiking 580%. Jim Cramer called it "ridiculous" on Mad Money and he's not wrong — but the market bought the pitch anyway, which honestly tells you everything you need to know about sentiment right now.