Netflix Craters 10% While the Rest of Wall Street Parties Like It's Peace Time
Q1 earnings are shaping up to be a tale of two markets: AI winners and streaming losers
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFLX NETFLIX INC | sell | $97.28 | — | — | — |
| MSTR Strategy Inc | buy | $166.24 | — | — | — |
| BTC Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF | buy | $77187.00 | — | — | — |
| RCL ROYAL CARIBBEAN CRUISES LTD | buy | $285.87 | — | — | — |
| CCL CARNIVAL CORP | buy | $29.33 | — | — | — |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | hold | $102.58 | — | — | — |
| INTC INTEL CORP | buy | $68.25 | — | — | — |
| META Meta Platforms, Inc. | hold | $686.99 | — | — | — |
While Wall Street was busy throwing a +1.75% Dow block party over the Strait of Hormuz reopening, $NFLX dropped roughly 9-10% — its worst single-session since April 2022 — after a Q2 revenue and EPS guidance miss that left analysts genuinely cranky. No share buybacks, no improved margin outlook, a ~$20B content spend crushing margins, and Reed Hastings quietly exiting as chairman after 29 years. That's a lot of bad news bingo in one afternoon.
Meanwhile, the broader earnings setup actually looks surprisingly strong. Wells Fargo's Daryl Cronk told Bloomberg that Q1 earnings are expected to come in at +13% growth, with forward 12-month projections at 17-18% — the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. The real test? Forward guidance for Q2 and Q3. That's where winners separate from the corpses. Financials and tech lead the way, and Dan Ives of Wedbush just returned from two weeks in Asia saying AI demand has zero cracks — bullish signal for hyperscalers heading into print season.
Retail sentiment is riding the geopolitical euphoria wave, but the smart money is watching guidance like a hawk — because $NFLX just reminded everyone that vibes don't pay the bills.