$MAT and the Mag Seven Are Both Sweating Earnings Season — For Very Different Reasons

Nothing says 'fun earnings season' like a potential strait closure threatening to send oil to $135/barrel. Bloomberg Surveillance's Keith Lerner of Truist is still waving the bull flag, calling resilient earnings the 'north star' of this market — which is either visionary or the most optimistic thing said since someone greenlit a fourth Shrek movie.

The ripple effects are real though. $MAT CEO Ynon Kreiz was on Bloomberg Talks flagging oil price volatility as a direct supply chain headache — and toys aren't alone. Amazon's $200B capex announcement already triggered a 10% drop, and the Mag Seven broadly are facing street skepticism over whether those infrastructure bets pencil out if energy costs go parabolic. Goldman Sachs is floating the possibility of oil eclipsing the 2008 peak of $147/barrel if the Strait stays closed — a number that rewrites cost structures across every sector with a supply chain.

Retail traders are watching earnings for the fundamental story, but right now the macro is the loudest voice in the room — and it's not using its inside voice.