Iran Peace Hopes Send S&P to 7,000 — But the Oil Market Thinks You're Being Naive
The Strait of Hormuz played yo-yo with global markets all week while earnings season reminded us stocks still have fundamentals
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST | buy | $710.14 | — | — | — |
| NFLX NETFLIX INC | sell | $97.28 | — | — | — |
| JBHT HUNT J B TRANSPORT SERVICES INC | buy | $245.00 | — | — | — |
| SCHW SCHWAB CHARLES CORP | hold | $92.26 | — | — | — |
| HIMS Hims & Hers Health, Inc. | buy | $28.67 | — | — | — |
| ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES | sell | $96.92 | — | — | — |
| PEP PEPSICO INC | hold | $157.66 | — | — | — |
| ULTA Ulta Beauty, Inc. | buy | $553.06 | — | — | — |
| INTC INTEL CORP | buy | $68.25 | — | — | — |
| JBLU JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP | sell | $5.90 | — | — | — |
| AAL American Airlines Group Inc. | sell | $12.66 | — | — | — |
| AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | buy | $395.06 | — | — | — |
| LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORP | buy | $267.50 | — | — | — |
| TSLA Tesla, Inc. | hold | $401.09 | — | — | — |
| AMZN AMAZON COM INC | buy | $250.74 | — | — | — |
| MSFT MICROSOFT CORP | buy | $422.33 | — | — | — |
| AAPL Apple Inc. | buy | $270.60 | — | — | — |
Let's get the geopolitics out of the way first: Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz. Then closed it. Then Trump said they agreed to suspend their nuclear program. Then analysts said 'cool story, bro.' Markets didn't care about the nuance — the S&P 500 closed at 7,001, its biggest weekly advance since 2020 (+4.5%), while WTI crude cratered ~11% to ~$83/barrel. Goldman says $93 billion in short positions were covered this month alone. That's not a rally — that's a short squeeze wearing a peace deal costume.
On the earnings front: $NFLX dropped ~9% on weak Q2 guidance and Reed Hastings quietly exiting as chairman after 29 years. Meanwhile, $JBHT beat estimates and gave freight bulls something to cheer about. Schwab ($SCHW) posted record Q1 earnings but got slapped anyway on a revenue miss — classic. And Anthropic's new AI model 'Mythos' produced 181 successful cybersecurity exploits versus 2 from its predecessor, causing the Fed to hastily convene bank CEOs for a chat. Totally normal week.
Morgan Stanley's Katerina Simonetti called this an "incredible buying opportunity." TD Cowen thinks oil overreacted to the downside. Wells Fargo sees Q1 earnings up 13% with forward growth of 17-18% — sixth consecutive quarter of double digits. The data says buy the dip. The Strait of Hormuz says maybe don't get too comfortable.