Hormuz Shutdown Threat, Oil Whipsawing, and Markets Flying Blind — Welcome to Monday

The internet woke up this morning doing its best impression of a war movie trailer. Iran's Revolutionary Guards threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz if Trump follows through on threats to Iranian energy infrastructure — a move that would choke roughly 20% of global oil supply. Saudi Aramco's CEO reportedly pulled out of a major international energy conference because of the conflict. UK Prime Minister Starmer called an emergency economic meeting. Treasury Secretary Bessent, channeling all the chill energy of a man lighting a cigarette near a gas leak, said the US has "plenty" of funds for an Iran war. The dollar is rising on safe-haven demand. Everything is fine.

Meanwhile, social sentiment on Reddit and X is doing exactly what you'd expect: energy stocks are getting pumped, gold bugs are crowing near $4,000/oz, and the macro crowd is furiously debating whether this finally forces the Fed's hand. Notably, $MU is somehow the hero of the session, ripping 16% on a monster earnings beat and $100 billion in guaranteed customer revenue through 2030 — proof that semiconductors don't care about geopolitics.

When the Strait of Hormuz is trending alongside Micron earnings on the same morning, you know the market has entered its chaotic neutral era.