Hormuz or Bust: Trump Blockades the Strait and Oil Is Already Up 6% Before Monday Open
Failed US-Iran negotiations, a naval blockade announcement, and physical crude trading $30-$40 above futures — buckle up.
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Over the weekend, US-Iran peace talks in Pakistan collapsed after marathon negotiations, with VP JD Vance citing Iran's refusal to commit on nuclear weapons. President Trump responded via Truth Social — naturally — announcing a full US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. No big deal, just the chokepoint for 20-30% of global oil supply.
Markets are already reacting. Bloomberg's energy desk calls this the biggest energy shortfall in history, with 10-13 million barrels per day of upstream production shut in and all floating buffer stocks already drawn down. Physical crude is sitting at roughly $150/barrel — a jaw-dropping $30-$40 premium over futures. IG trading shows oil up 6% before Monday's open. Meanwhile, the dollar is catching safe-haven bids and Asia shares are sliding. TheChartGuys on YouTube are flagging $SPY and $QQQ for near-term retracement, with key ES support at 66,276 as the line in the sand.
Andrei Jikh's take — that the Fed prints into the inflation anyway — is looking less like a hot take and more like a weather forecast.