Hormuz or Bust: Oil Spikes to $113 as Iran Threatens to Close the World's Most Important Waterway
The US-Iran standoff is the only trade that matters right now, and social sentiment is split between panic and YOLO
Ticker Ratings
| Ticker | Rating | Entry Price | Current | $ Gain | % Gain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM EXXON MOBIL CORP | buy | $162.50 | — | — | — |
| CVX CHEVRON CORP | buy | $199.64 | — | — | — |
| DAL DELTA AIR LINES, INC. | sell | $65.81 | — | — | — |
| UAL United Airlines Holdings, Inc. | sell | $90.00 | — | — | — |
| JBLU JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP | sell | $4.60 | — | — | — |
| UNH UNITEDHEALTH GROUP INC | buy | $306.72 | — | — | — |
| HUM HUMANA INC | hold | $197.51 | — | — | — |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc. | buy | $335.30 | — | — | — |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc. | hold | $307.40 | — | — | — |
The market has one story today and it involves oil, missiles, and a Trump-imposed deadline that has every trader on the planet doing scenario math. WTI crude is trading around $113–$114 after Iran's Revolutionary Guards threatened to completely close the Strait of Hormuz if Trump follows through on threats to Iranian energy infrastructure. Iran also reportedly struck Saudi Arabia's Jubail petrochemical complex — which is the kind of headline that makes portfolio managers put down their coffee very slowly.
Bloomberg's YouTube channel is running a 'negotiated escalation' thesis: military pressure as leverage, not endgame. Jeremy Siegel laid out four scenarios on CNBC ranging from best case (deal before 8PM, Dow rips 1,000+ points) to worst case (Gulf infrastructure bombing, major market downside). The most likely? A delay or diplomatic signal — hello, Pakistan — producing a relief rally but no all-time highs just yet. $PARA is somehow up 13% after locking in Gulf sovereign wealth fund backing for its Warner Brothers deal, which is either genius timing or the most chaotic hedge in history.
Meanwhile $DAL is getting hit from both sides — jet fuel supply disruptions and bag fee backlash — which is a special kind of airline suffering that feels almost poetic. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil supply; if it closes, $113 crude will look like the good old days.