Hormuz or Bust: Iran's Strait Threat Is the $115 Oil Shock Wall Street Can't Ignore

Five weeks into a US-Israel air campaign against Iran, and here's your damage report: $12 trillion in global wealth vaporized, Brent crude ripping to $115/barrel (up over 50% since the shooting started, and ~90% per some JPMorgan doomsday math), and Iran's Revolutionary Guards now threatening to completely shut the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that handles roughly 20% of global oil flow. Cool, cool, totally normal Monday vibes.

The commodity chaos is producing some wild winners: $AA is up ~8% and $CENX is ripping ~13% after Iran attacked Gulf aluminum smelters over the weekend. Meanwhile, $EXPE and $CART got Jefferies upgrades — the AI-driven selloff apparently left both looking cheap if, you know, people still want to travel and order groceries after all this. Powell, ever the party guest who arrives late and says nothing useful, admits it's too soon to know the war's impact, while his dual-mandate tension — inflation screaming up, growth nowcasts falling from 3-4% to ~2% — is giving FOMC members their own little civil war to manage.

The Bab el-Mandeb strait is now also in Houthi crosshairs, meaning 12% of global trade has a target on its back — which is either a generational buying opportunity or the plot of a disaster movie. Bill Ackman is buying the dip; the Saudi Aramco CEO just ghosted a major energy conference. Pick your vibe.